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Rasmala and Group CEO Zak Hydari have been named on Forbes Middle East’s Top 50 Asset Managers 2026.

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Rasmala and Group CEO Zak Hydari have been named on Forbes Middle East’s Top 50 Asset Managers 2026.

 

The asset management industry across the Middle East continues to expand, supported by growing capital markets, increasing investor participation, and a broader range of investment products. Reflecting the sector’s continued growth, Forbes Middle East has expanded its annual ranking this year to recognize the region’s Top 50 Asset Managers.

The 50 leaders featured in this year’s rankings oversee firms that collectively managed more than $554 billion in assets in 2025, spanning local and international equity and fixed-income funds, discretionary portfolios, real estate investments, REITs, and private equity.

According to BCG, assets under management across the GCC grew by 10% in 2025 to reach $2.7 trillion, driven by stronger growth in retail assets than institutional assets. Saudi Arabia remained the region’s largest market for retail mutual funds and ETFs.

This year’s list of top asset managers includes leaders from eight Arab countries. GCC-based leaders account for 43 of the 50 entries, with the firms they oversee collectively managing nearly $523 billion in assets in 2025. Saudi Arabia leads the ranking with 20 entries, whose firms managed more than $285 billion in assets. The Kingdom also dominated the MENA IPO market in 2025, accounting for 39 of the region’s 49 IPOs and raising $4.9 billion of the total $7.3 billion in proceeds, according to EY.

Kuwait follows with eight leaders whose firms managed $94.2 billion in assets, while the UAE contributes six leaders overseeing $32.5 billion. Qatar is represented by five leaders whose firms managed $16 billion, Bahrain by three leaders managing $94.1 billion, and Oman by one leader overseeing $1.2 billion in assets.

Outside of the GCC, Egypt contributes six leaders whose firms managed $13.7 billion in assets, while Morocco is represented by one leader whose firm managed $17.5 billion.

The list is almost evenly split between leaders of independent asset management firms, who account for 26 entries, and leaders of bank-affiliated asset management businesses, with 24 entries.

 

Zak Hydari

44. Zak Hydari

Designation: Group CEO
Company: Rasmala Group
Nationality: British
Headquarters: UAE

Hydari joined Rasmala Holdings in 2012, serving as Group CEO until 2021 and regaining the title in 2024. The Group had $1.5 billion in assets under management in 2025. In October 2025, Rasmala Investment Bank Ltd. exited its Poseidon Fund at $500 million, delivering a return of over eight times to participating shareholders. Its flagship Rasmala Global Sukuk Fund generated a gross return of 7.92% in 2025. Hydari has held various senior leadership roles within the Group, including CEO and Managing Director of its UK-based investment bank and Senior Executive Officer of Rasmala Investment Bank Ltd.

US Rates Outlook: Why the Fed Is Staring Past the Oil Rally

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US Rates Outlook: Why the Fed Is Staring Past the Oil Rally

Rasmala Market Commentary — July 2026

With the FOMC meeting under the new Chair and the MoU between the US and Iran now behind us, where is the US yield curve heading?

A Yield Curve That Won’t Cooperate

The US and Iran have signed an MoU, which has resulted in oil prices moving back close to pre-war levels. This should, in theory, have brought the US yield curve back towards pre-war levels as well, even if not entirely. However, the curve has barely moved: the short end remains up by almost 75bps, while the long end is up by around 30bps relative to pre-war levels, which is a pattern consistent with bear flattening. Although the oil price increase had not fully unwound by the time Kevin Warsh spoke, the new FOMC Chair sounded more hawkish in his first press conference than the market had expected.

Yield curve

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation Runs Deeper Than Oil

These two events suggest that the inflation story runs much deeper than oil alone. Core PCE, historically the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, turned around in October last year and crossed above the 3% mark in December. On closer inspection, there is no evidence that energy prices alone are driving inflation higher: Healthcare and Housing, which together account for 36% of the core PCE index, contributed 1.2 percentage points of the 3.4% print for May, while Financial Services & Insurance, with a weight of less than 9% in the index, contributed 0.7 percentage points. Super core PCE, which strips out housing-related inflation from the core index, has been running consistently above 3%; the latest print was 3.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from its recent low of 3.2% in October 2025.

Core PCE

Source: Bloomberg

The Labour Market Regains Its Footing

On the other side, the labour market is regaining momentum, with payrolls averaging 188k over the last three months. Strong payroll growth has been witnessed in cyclical industries such as Leisure & Hospitality, followed by non-cyclical sectors such as Education & Health Services. Given the tight US labour supply resulting from the changed immigration environment, it is not unreasonable to expect wage growth, which has been moderating over the past year, to turn around.

Labour Market

Source: Bloomberg

Structural Growth: The AI Capex Story

Beyond the high-frequency data on inflation and the labour market, we see strong structural growth underpinned by a massive capex cycle in AI-related industries, high government spending, and robust consumer spending supported by a low unemployment rate and the wealth effect. To put this in perspective, gross private domestic investment contributed 1.35 percentage points of the 2.1% GDP growth recorded in Q1 2026. Adjusting for the change in inventories and the decline in residential investment, the contribution from non-residential capex was even higher. Given the scale of ongoing AI-related spending, we expect the capex cycle to be sustained over the medium term.

Our Outlook: On Hold, With Hike Risk Skewed Higher

It is therefore unsurprising that the market has largely looked past the sharp decline in the oil price following the MoU between the US and Iran. The market still expects at least one rate hike from the Fed by year-end. Our baseline expectation, however, is that the Fed will remain on hold for an extended period. This view rests on the fact that the US economy currently sits on a strong footing, though much will also depend on how AI-related capex evolves in the second half of this year and into next. That said, we believe the probability of a rate hike is considerably higher than that of a rate cut when it comes to the Fed’s next move, particularly if it materialises within the next couple of quarters. Additionally, should a hike occur, it is likely to be more than a single move.

This document has been prepared by Rasmala Investment Bank Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and licensed to operate within the Dubai International Financial Centre. It is provided for information purposes only, is directed solely at Professional Clients as defined by the DFSA, and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product. The value of investments, and the income derived from them, can fall as well as rise, and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The information and opinions contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.© 2026 Rasmala Investment Bank Limited. All rights reserved.

Can New UK Government Initiatives Address the Chronic Housing Shortage?

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Key Initiatives Include National Housing Bank, Social and Affordable Homes Program, Planning and Infrastructure Bill 

 

Important: Rasmala Investment Bank Limited is regulated by the DFSA. This communication is for professional clients (DFSA) only and for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not for retail distribution. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments carry risk, and values may fluctuate, falling as well as rising.

 

The UK housing market may present potential long-term investment opportunities due to a chronic undersupply of housing, which may underpin both income and capital values for investors. However, accessing attractively priced properties, particularly through greenfield and brownfield development, is hindered by government regulations and escalating construction costs, especially in regeneration areas. 

The UK Housing Crisis: A Deep-Rooted Imbalance 

The UK housing market faces a longstanding supply-demand imbalance with significant socio-economic consequences. The UK has a backlog of 4.3 million homes that accumulated between 1955 and 2015, a substantial deficit compared to the average European country.  

Despite efforts by agencies like Homes England, which reported 38,308 housing starts and 36,872 completions in 2024–25 and exceeded its internal targets for two consecutive years, broader national housing goals remain out of reach. This indicates a long-term, structural challenge rather than a temporary issue for investors.  

Affordability is a growing concern, particularly for renters. As of April 2025, private renters in England spent approximately 29.6% of their income on housing. While rising earnings have modestly improved affordability for buyers, rental costs continue to soar, especially in cities, pushing more households toward social housing. This divergence highlights growing pressure on the rental market and points to strong fundamentals in the Build-to-Rent and Single-Family Housing sectors, which may offer stable, inflation-linked returns and are less exposed to regulatory constraints affecting high-rise sales developments.  

Government Interventions: A Multi-Pronged Approach 

The UK government has launched a series of significant initiatives in 2025 to tackle the housing crisis, combining direct financial intervention, long-term funding certainty for affordable housing, and comprehensive planning reforms. These interventions aim to improve the investment environment by providing additional funding and streamlining processes.  

  • The National Housing Bank (NHB): A New Financial Lever 

Launched in June 2025, the National Housing Bank (NHB) is a crucial component of the government’s housing strategy. Backed by £16 billion in new public capital and £6 billion in existing funds, the NHB aims to deliver over 500,000 homes by partnering with the private sector and providing financial certainty to investors. This public support is expected to unlock up to £53 billion in private investment.  

Operating as a government-backed arm of Homes England, the NHB has the authority to issue guarantees and deploy capital directly. To reduce risk for private investors, it offers a full suite of financial tools, including equity, debt, and guarantees. Specifically, £2.5 billion will support affordable housing through low-interest loans, and SMEs will benefit from revolving credit and expanded partnerships with lenders. For investors, the NHB may offer co-investment opportunities in previously unviable projects, especially those involving regeneration, infrastructure, or SME builders. By absorbing early-stage risk, the NHB lowers barriers for private capital and creates new entry points into complex developments. However, investors should conduct thorough due diligence to understand how NHB-backed projects, which may benefit from subsidies or guarantees, could alter normal pricing dynamics and affect returns and market value.  

  • The Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP): Long-Term Certainty 

 Published in July 2025, the £39 billion Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP) aims to deliver 300,000 new affordable homes over 10 years, a scale twice that of its predecessor. At least 60% (180,000 homes) will be for social rent. From April 2026, social housing rents will be capped at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus 1% for a period of at least 5 years, providing long-term clarity for planning and reinvestment.  

The SAHP also reforms the Right to Buy scheme, extending tenant qualification periods, adjusting discounts, and exempting new social homes from sale for 35 years. It also aims to rebuild public sector delivery capacity by strengthening local authority borrowing, regulation, and partnerships. This 10-year funding and rent framework may offer investors a rare level of predictability, potentially reducing uncertainty and strengthening the appeal of affordable housing as a potentially stable, inflation-linked investment. A renewed focus on council-led housebuilding may open the door to more joint ventures between local authorities and private firms, potentially offering new opportunities for developers and investors with relevant delivery expertise.  

  • Planning and Infrastructure Bill: Streamlining Development

Introduced in March 2025, the Planning and Infrastructure Bill aims to streamline homebuilding and infrastructure delivery as part of the government’s target to build 1.5 million homes by 2029. Key reforms include reinstating mandatory housing targets (from December 2024), allowing development on ‘grey belt’ land (lower-quality green belt areas), simplifying regulations, reforming compulsory purchase processes, and enabling strategic, cross-boundary planning. While development on ‘grey belt’ land increases theoretical supply, it doesn’t eliminate local opposition. Investors may consider prioritising regions where local authorities support development and where strong community engagement strategies are in place to mitigate potential delays from community resistance.  

The Reality on the Ground: Persistent Delays and Their Impact 

Despite ambitious policy frameworks and significant financial commitments, the practical implementation of housing development in the UK is severely hampered by persistent and systemic delays. These bottlenecks, particularly those associated with the Building Safety Act (BSA) Gateway 2 approvals and the broader planning system, create considerable friction and risk for developers and investors.  

Building Safety Act (BSA) Gateway 2 Delays 

Gateway 2, introduced under the 2022 Building Safety Act, requires approval before construction begins on Higher-Risk Buildings (HRBs), typically high-rise residential projects. Developers must submit complete plans and safety documentation to the Building Safety Regulator (BSR), but the process has become a significant constraint. Delays persist primarily due to the complexity of new regulatory requirements and a high rate of defective applications. Applications are taking between 25 and 40 weeks, with some projects experiencing delays approaching 18 months, straining contractor pricing models and disrupting cash flow. This regulatory uncertainty has prompted many developers to scale back or avoid high-rise projects, reducing the pipeline where urban density is most needed. Even with NHB and SAHP financial backing, Gateway 2 remains a critical bottleneck, limiting housing delivery speed and scope. The main issue is that developers often fail to demonstrate compliance adequately, submitting plans that show what work will be done rather than proving how building regulations will be met. However, the BSR is working to provide more explicit guidance and advisory services.  

Planning System Delays 

Beyond the Building Safety Act, the broader planning system continues to present substantial obstacles. Applications that should theoretically take 8-12 weeks routinely stretch to nearly a year, creating cascading delays. Local resistance, or NIMBYism, compounds these procedural delays, even on land designated for development like ‘grey belt’ areas. This opposition can derail projects that have already navigated complex regulatory hurdles, creating additional uncertainty for investors and developers. The cumulative effect has been a sharp decline in housing starts as developers become increasingly reluctant to commit capital to projects with unpredictable timelines. For investors, this uncertainty may translate directly into extended risk exposure and compressed returns, often deterring capital deployment entirely.  

Investment Implications: Navigating Delays and Opportunities 

The confluence of ambitious government housing initiatives and persistent development delays creates a unique landscape for real estate investment. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for identifying strategic opportunities while mitigating execution risks. While government capital is increasingly abundant, delivery remains constrained by regulatory bottlenecks, making execution risk the central investment consideration.  

Strategic Opportunities 

  • Target low-regulation segments: With high-rise projects facing severe regulatory delays, investor focus is shifting toward Single-Family Housing (SFH) and certain Build-to-Rent (BtR) models, which may offer faster delivery timelines, stable demand, and minimal exposure to Gateway 2 constraints. 
  • Leverage long-term certainty in affordable housing: The SAHP’s 10-year funding framework and rent stability may provide predictable, inflation-linked income streams, particularly attractive for long-term and ESG-focused capital seeking stable returns. 
  • Invest in delivery solutions: Strategies that compress timelines or ease regulatory compliance, such as modular construction, planning technology, or regulatory advisory services, may unlock significant value by accelerating bottlenecked projects. 
  • Co-invest in de-risked developments: Through NHB support, investors can potentially gain access to regeneration and infrastructure-heavy projects previously deemed too risky. Government backing may improve project viability and absorb early-stage risk, potentially making even Gateway 2-affected developments viable through shared risk structures.

 

Conclusion: A Shift in Investment Strategy 

The UK housing sector presents both significant challenges and potentially compelling opportunities. While planning and regulatory delays are expected to persist in the near term, the traditional “DIY” approach to investing in the UK residential property market is no longer viable for overseas investors. Even traditional Buy-to-Let investors are leaving the market. To navigate this complex landscape and access potentially attractive investment opportunities, one approach may be to partner with institutional investors who understand the market, possess on-the-ground expertise to navigate the regulatory environment, and can access potentially attractive investment opportunities. By targeting appropriate segments, structuring partnerships strategically, and planning for extended timelines, investors may access stable, long-term returns that align with both financial objectives and social impact goals.  

Important Note: This analysis is intended for professional investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk.  

References 

 

What really drives long-term success?

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🎥 What really drives long-term success? 🎥

Some say it’s strategy. Others say it’s timing, talent, or even luck.
At Rasmala, 25 years of investing across markets and cycles have taught us that true success doesn’t come from just one thing, but from a combination of enduring principles, decisive leadership, and trusted relationships.
In the first video of our new series exploring the moments and mindsets that shaped us, we ask:

👉 What has been critical to Rasmala’s success?

It’s a short watch but it says a lot about what’s kept us going and what still drives us today.

Rasmala and Group CEO Zak Hydari have been named on Forbes Middle East’s Top 40 Asset Managers 2025

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Rasmala and Group CEO Zak Hydari have been named on Forbes Middle East’s Top 40 Asset Managers 2025.

 

MENA is witnessing significant growth in its asset management sector, driven by a combination of economic diversification, infrastructure investments, and shifting investor preferences. Last year was pivotal, marked by a series of high-profile IPOs that drew interest from local and international investors.

MENA’s stock markets saw 54 IPOs in 2024, raising $12.6 billion in total according to EY. This surge was impacted by a series of high-profile IPOs, including the U.A.E’s Talabat Holding, Lulu Retail, and NMDC Energy, and Oman’s OQ Exploration and Production.

Asset managers also played a pivotal role in debt and sukuk issuances, whether to companies or governments. The GCC’s sukuk issuance grew by 43% year-on-year to reach $87.5 billion in 2024, according to Fitch Ratings. For example, KFH Capital led and arranged over $17.8 billion in sukuk issuances for sovereigns and corporates in 2024, and Kamco Invest also managed nine bond and sukuk issuances worth $4.2 billion.

Saudi Arabia is home to the region’s biggest stock exchanges and dominates this year’s list of top asset managers, with 19 of the 40 entries based there. It’s followed by the U.A.E. and Kuwait with six entries each.

The 40 asset managers featured on this list managed over $439 billion in assets in 2024, including local and international equity and debt funds, discretionary portfolios, real estate investments, REITS, and private equity.

 

Zak Hydari

38. Zak Hydari

Designation: Group CEO; Senior Executive Officer
Company: Rasmala Investment Holdings; Rasmala Investment Bank Limited
Nationality: British
Headquarters: UAE

Hydari joined Rasmala in 2012, serving as group CEO until 2021, and regaining the title in 2024. He was appointed senior executive officer of Rasmala Investment Bank in June 2024. As of 2024, Rasmala recorded assets under management of approximately $1.6 billion. In February 2025, Rasmala Investment Bank Limited deployed $300 million across global infrastructure, technology-driven private equity, and real estate, in Europe and the U.S. Hydari held multiple leadership positions within the group, including CEO and managing director of its U.K.-based investment bank.

US Election Result

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Trump Makes History, Market Reacts Predictably

 

Trump2O Market Impact

 

Donald Trump is poised to become the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, likely accompanied by a majority in the Senate and potentially a majority in the House of Representatives – a scenario commonly referred to as a “clean sweep.” Financial markets have responded as anticipated, with positive movement in U.S. equities, higher U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar.

While the short-term reaction is positive for most U.S. risk assets, the medium-term trajectory may not be as straightforward. As the political dust settles, markets will begin to focus on the new president’s capacity and fiscal flexibility to deliver campaign promises, particularly in areas like tariffs and tax cuts. The tariff implementation is anticipated to be staggered, depending on potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries, while immigration reforms, generally less complex to enact, are likely to be prioritized.

Trump 2.0 calls for an accelerated deglobalization, imposing tariffs and tighter labor mobility, a recipe for slower growth and higher inflation. Consensus estimates a 1.5% decline in GDP coupled with a 1.0% uptick in inflation within the first 12 months assuming President Trump opts to fully deliver on his campaign promises.

Corporate tax cuts, if enacted as suggested during the campaign, would be highly favorable for equities. We believe the potential for corporate tax rates to drop as low as 15% is yet to be fully priced in. However, the timing of such tax cuts will depend on the fiscal capacity and bond market tolerance,making this an ongoing source of equity market volatility in the near term. That said, U.S. earnings momentum remains supportive for equity markets over the medium term.

A combination of campaign promises on tariffs, immigration controls, and possibly larger deficits due to tax cuts is likely to be structurally inflationary. This scenario could present a challenge for the Federal Reserve, caught between potentially slower growth and higher inflation, which could lead to volatile bond markets. Additionally, it will be interesting to see if he goes ahead with the White House having a say in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. Our sense is that he’ll avoid interference; however, any attempt to do so would likely create higher volatility in the fixed income market.

More specifically, the Middle East is likely to feel the heat during Trump 2.0 due to shifts in energy and geopolitical policies. Known for his pro-fossil-fuel stance, Trump’s administration is likely to scale back support for alternative energy, which would initially benefit U.S.-based oil companies. His push to end the Russia-Ukraine war could reintroduce significant volumes of Russian oil to global markets, potentially putting downward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, the Trump administration’s stance towards Iran may heighten tensions in an already volatile region, further impacting the geopolitical landscape and possibly influencing oil market volatility.

For more information on how we can navigate your investment portfolio during Trump 2.0 (and beyond), please get in touch with our Chief Investment Officer, Ali Taqi, CFA.

Beyond balancing the books

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Beyond balancing the books

 

What are the investment implications of Labour’s Autumn Budget?

Drawing on information taken from the Commons Library Research Briefing: Autumn Budget 2024 Summary, the OBR’s October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, and the Financial Times, this analysis unpacks the potential implications of Labour’s fiscal adjustments on investment strategies. 

The 2024 Autumn Budget, Labour’s first fiscal outline in over 14 years, reflects a shift in the UK’s economic priorities. It introduces adjustments to employer National Insurance rates, revisions to capital gains tax thresholds, and significant infrastructure investments. These initiatives are positioned to address socioeconomic needs and support public service renewal, aligning with Labour’s vision for sustainable growth and equitable resource distribution.

For investors, understanding the implications of these fiscal changes is crucial. Key areas likely to see an impact include real estate, private equity, infrastructure, and ESG-focused assets, with potential shifts in value as policies take effect. Specifically, changes to employer taxation may influence corporate strategies, particularly in capital-intensive sectors, while capital gains tax adjustments could reshape investment planning.

We consider the UK’s upcoming fiscal adjustments and the potential impact on investment strategies.

 

Key Fiscal and Policy Shifts Impacting Business and Investment

National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and their implications for cost structures and employment strategies

Employer NICs will see a rate hike from 13.8% to 15% effective April 2025. Additionally, the NIC threshold will be reduced from £9,100 to £5,000, which the Treasury projects to generate approximately £25 billion in annual revenue. While the government has increased the employment allowance to help smaller firms offset the rise, larger firms and labour-intensive industries are likely to experience elevated operational costs.

This policy change may encourage businesses to reevaluate workforce structures and explore greater automation to offset increased payroll burdens. For investment in labour-intensive sectors, such as manufacturing, retail, and hospitality, the higher NICs could marginally affect profitability ratios. Companies that qualify for the expanded employment

allowance may find opportunities to optimise their workforce models, especially in low-margin industries.

For private equity investors, these developments underscore the importance of due diligence on payroll structures and overhead costs in target companies. Cost-benefit assessments around workforce automation and outsourcing may also become more common in strategic decision-making.

Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and Inheritance Tax (IHT) will potentially have long-term wealth planning implications

The budget’s adjustments to capital gains and inheritance taxes could have some implications for asset sales, estate planning, and corporate structuring, especially for high-net-worth individuals and family businesses. Effective immediately, CGT rates rise from 10% to 18% (lower) and from 20% to 24% (higher). The Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and Investors’ Relief (IR) rates will similarly increase, gradually rising through 2025 and 2026.

On inheritance tax, as of April 2027, adjustments will apply to pension wealth that is transferable at death, expected to raise £1.5 billion annually. Meanwhile, business property relief (BPR) will be restructured, offering 100% relief on assets valued under £1 million but reducing relief to 50% on higher values. These adjustments could lead to a notable shift in estate planning strategies, especially for investors with significant agricultural or business holdings.

Family offices and trust structures may need to implement alternative tax mitigation strategies, such as offshore holdings, which align with new tax thresholds. The new policies on stamp duty and CGT seem to favour institutional ownership of real estate assets over direct owners. Therefore, we might see a move towards larger institutional ownership of UK real estate as is the case in the US for example. For private equity investors and real estate portfolios, this alignment would intensify tax burdens and may prompt accelerated exit strategies or restructured holdings to mitigate higher outflows. Here again, real estate investment trusts (REITs) offer distinct advantages over direct ownership of real estate.

Labour’s commitment to enforcing tighter regulations around non-domiciled individuals includes plans to subject offshore assets held in trusts to inheritance tax, a move expected to generate significant additional revenue. This measure specifically targets the practice of using offshore structures to shield wealth from UK taxation. Additionally, Labour’s policy aims to reduce tax exemptions that have historically allowed wealthy non-doms to avoid taxation on overseas income. By implementing these adjustments, Labour anticipates

curtailing some tax advantages that have previously attracted high-net-worth individuals to the UK. As these benefits are reduced, investment inflows, particularly in prime property and luxury asset markets, may see slower growth, potentially impacting high-value, cross-border investment strategies.

 

Public Sector Spending and Infrastructure Investment Open New Avenues

Infrastructure investment and ESG opportunities

The budget allocates one-third of its spending increase to infrastructure, covering sectors such as transport, housing, and research and development. Specifically, the National Wealth Fund will channel funds into projects supporting green energy, housing, and road maintenance, contributing to long-term GDP growth over the next 50 years. Additionally, the Department for Transport will receive investment increases aimed at advancing local road maintenance and public transport initiatives.

For real estate investors, heightened government spending on affordable housing could signal increased demand for increased demand for private investment in the affordable housing sector housing sector. With an additional £500 million earmarked for the Affordable Homes Programme and a CPI+1% indexing of rents, there is potential for increased private investment in affordable housing projects or for private equity funds targeting community housing developments. Aligning with these affordable housing initiatives can further support ESG-focused strategies, potentially tapping into social impact investment to bolster both return on investment and societal benefits. By taking part in affordable housing development, investors could enhance community impact while addressing a growing demand for low-cost housing solutions. From an ESG standpoint, green energy and carbon-neutral projects backed by National Wealth Fund investment align with market demand for sustainable investment vehicles.

 

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Economic Forecasts

Exploring GDP growth, inflation, and their sectoral impacts and resilience factors

The OBR forecasts GDP growth to accelerate to 2.0% in 2025, before stabilising at approximately 1.5% through 2029. This growth trajectory, while moderate, indicates stability, though inflationary pressures are expected to linger above the 2% target until 2029, with a peak effect in 2026 at 2.7%.

Inflation persistence could place upward pressure on input costs, particularly in manufacturing, construction, and services. For investors, inflation-linked assets, such as infrastructure and utilities, may offer a measure of resilience against sustained inflation. For Rasmala, the strategy has been to invest in assets that can quickly adjust income for inflation, for example residential built-to-rent schemes or inflation-linked commercial leases tend to better protect portfolios against erosion of value. Increased employer NICs may exert secondary inflationary pressures as businesses adjust pricing structures to accommodate rising overheads, potentially leading to reduced profit margins in price-sensitive sectors.

 

Real Estate, Private Equity, and Private School VAT Adjustments

Investment optimisation strategies in real estate stamp duty and business rates

The stamp duty land tax (SDLT) for second homes has increased from 3% to 5%, which could temper the rate of new acquisitions in high-demand property markets, such as London. However, on the one hand it may create space for first-time buyers, but on the other hand it may also reduce the supply of rental accommodation and result in higher rents. Real estate investors may wish to assess short-term acquisition rates against potential longer-term rental returns, especially in regions with rental demand surges.

Labour may also consider incentive structures to encourage landlords to expand rental availability, counterbalancing stricter eviction policies and other tenant protections. Such incentives could involve tax reliefs or grants for landlords, stabilizing supply in the private rental market amid rising regulatory costs. Investors in the private rental market may wish to assess these incentives as part of a broader rental yield strategy.

For commercial real estate and private equity investors, business rate relief, capped at 40% for retail, hospitality, and leisure sectors in 2025, can offer strategic avenues for optimising operational expenses. Additionally, lower-rate business rates for retail and hospitality spaces starting in 2026 could encourage strategic repositioning within these sectors, possibly boosting valuations over time. Commercial investors might consider repositioning retail assets to take advantage of these shifts, maximizing value through rate relief.

VAT on Private Schools

Introducing a 20% VAT on private school fees marks a notable shift in the education sector, potentially affecting demand dynamics and, indirectly, the real estate market in areas with a high concentration of private schools. For real estate investments in proximity to such

institutions, analysing shifts in property demand and exploring diverse tenant pools may become more relevant as demand for private schooling potentially adjusts.

 

Strategic Implications for Investor Portfolios

Social Infrastructure

In the immediate aftermath of the speech, more attention has been focused on the revenue (i.e. tax) side of the budget speech, and not enough on the spending side. The budget carries with it a historic expansion of the NHS, and additional investment in social housing, education, infrastructure and green energy sectors. This is bound to open many avenues for private investment in social infrastructure sectors such as senior living, social housing, renewables, etc. There could be a case for renewed interest in long-income strategies in these areas.

Real estate

The increase in SDLT and CGT rates and the end of non-dom status will reduce the attractiveness of owning ‘second homes’. In the short-term, this will weigh somewhat on prices, particularly in London but in the longer term, it will reduce the availability of housing stock available for rent. Long-term investors may therefore capture the buying opportunity thus afforded.

Private equity and VC

Capitalizing on restructuring needs in response to increased NICs and CGT rates, private equity portfolios could explore acquisition targets where automation or offshoring can offset rising tax burdens. Companies in need of restructuring or looking to diversify revenue streams may align well with strategies focused on resilient sectors, such as technology, healthcare, and sustainable industries.

At the same time, an increase in carried interest rates to 32% may deter some UK-based PE managers or make them relocate to other jurisdictions.

 

Conclusion

The 2024 UK Autumn Budget provides a framework that emphasizes both immediate economic stability and long-term growth potential through strategic public investment. Aligning portfolios to capitalise on inflation-linked, ESG-compliant, and government-supported assets while adjusting for tax impacts in labour-intensive sectors positions the

firm for resilient, sustainable growth. This approach not only mitigates immediate fiscal pressures but aligns with future-oriented investment trends in a dynamic economic environment.

 

Important disclaimer

This note is prepared by Rasmala Investment Bank Limited (“RIBL”). RIBL is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). RIBL products or services are only made available to customers who RIBL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be a ” Professional Client”, as defined under the Rules and Regulations of the Dubai Financial Services Authority(“DFSA”).

Investment recommendations take into account both risk and expected return. We base our long-term fair value estimates on a fundamental analysis, after having taken perceived risks into consideration. We have conducted reasonable research to arrive at our investment recommendations and fair value estimates for a product mentioned in this presentation. Although the information in this presentation has been obtained from sources that RIBL believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information thus it may not be accurate or complete. RIBL does not represent or warrant, either expressly or impliedly, the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained within this presentation and no liability whatsoever is accepted by RIBL or any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or opinions or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Matters of past performance in this document should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance and RIBL makes no representation or warranty, express, implied or otherwise, regarding future performance. The market value of any security and estimated income may be affected by changes in economic, financial, (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest), and political factors time to maturity, market conditions, and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Readers should understand that financial projections, fair value estimates and statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

RIBL and its group entities (together and separately, “Rasmala”) does and may seek to do business in securities covered in its presentation. As a result, users should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this presentation. Investors should consider this presentation as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Rasmala and its respective employees, directors and officers shall not be responsible or liable for any liabilities, damages, losses,claims, causes of action, or proceedings (including without limitation indirect, consequential, special, incidental, or punitive damages) arising out of or in connection with the use of this presentation or any errors or omissions in its content.

The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this presentation certify that: (1) the views expressed and attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the presentation accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and, (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this presentation. Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes “forward-looking statements”, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “projected” or “estimated” or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the Market may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

For Residents of Sultanate of Oman

The information contained in this presentation neither constitutes a public offer of securities in the Sultanate of Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Sultani Decree 4/74) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Sultani Decree 80/98), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy, non-Omani securities in the Sultanate of Oman (as contemplated by Article 6 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law – issued pursuant to Ministerial Decision No.4/2001). Additionally, this presentation is not intended to lead to the conclusion of a contract of any nature whatsoever within the territory of the Sultanate of Oman.

For Residents of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute an invitation or an offer of securities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (“Saudi Arabia”) and accordingly should not be construed as such. This presentation is being issued outside Saudi Arabia to a limited number of investors (a) upon their request and confirmation that they understand that the securities (i) are not for sale in Saudi Arabia, (ii) have not been approved, licensed, registered or qualified as exempt offers or private placements by or with the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in Saudi Arabia, (iii) are not listed on any stock market in Saudi Arabia, (iv) are not denominated in Saudi Riyals and movements in exchange rate may cause the value of the securities to diminish, and (v) past performance is no guarantee of future returns; and (b) on the condition that it will not be provided to any person other than the original recipient, is not for circulation in Saudi Arabia and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose.

For Residents of The Arab Republic of Egypt

All applications for investment should be received and any allotments made, from outside Egypt. This presentation has been prepared for information purposes of intended investors only. This presentation will not be issued, passed to, or made available to the public generally.

For Residents of the United Kingdom

The contents of this presentation have not been approved by an authorised person for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”). Accordingly, this presentation is being distributed only to persons who fall within an exemption to Section 21 of FSMA, under the following Articles of the Financial Services Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001: Articles 12 (overseas recipients), Articles 19 (investment professionals), Article 48 (high net worth individuals) and Article 50 (sophisticated investors). This presentation is directed solely at persons who fall within such exemptions who are also wholesale customers and not “Retail Customers” (both as defined under the Rules and Regulations of the DIFC) and must not be acted on or relied on by any other persons.

For Residents of the United Arab Emirates

This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute an invitation or an offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (including the Dubai International Financial Centre) and accordingly should not be construed as such. This presentation is being issued to a limited number of institutional / sophisticated investors (a) upon their request and confirmation that they understand that the securities and the interests have not been approved or licensed by or registered with the United Arab Emirates Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates; and (b) on the condition that it will not be provided to any person other than the original recipient, is not for general circulation in the United Arab Emirates and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose.

For Residents of the State of Qatar

This document has not been filed with, reviewed or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority or any other relevant Qatari governmental body or security exchange.

For Residents of the Republic of Turkey

Neither this presentation nor any part of this should be utilized in connection with any general offering to the public in the Republic of Turkey without the prior approval of the Capital Markets Board of Turkey.

For Residents of the Kingdom of Bahrain

This presentation has been prepared for private information purposes and is intended to high-net-worth individuals and institutions. The Central Bank of Bahrain (“CBB”) has not reviewed, nor has it approved this presentation.

For Residents of the State of Kuwait

This presentation will comply with the provisions of law no 31 of 1990 as amended, entitled “Regulating Securities Offering and Sales” and its Executive By-laws (or implementing regulations) and other applicable laws and regulations in Kuwait. This presentation is issued outside Kuwait and should not be construed as public offer. The recipient of this material have been individual selected and is exclusively directed for private placement.

For Residents of the United States of America

RIBL is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or any U.S. state authority, as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. The securities of the funds referred to in this presentation have not been approved, disapproved or recommended by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities commission in the United States, the securities commission of any non-U.S. jurisdiction or any other U.S. or non-U.S. regulatory authority. None of these

authorities has passed on or endorsed the merits of any offering of such securities or the accuracy or adequacy of this presentation. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offence in the United States and may be a criminal offence in other jurisdictions.

The funds referred to herein have not been registered under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940. The securities of the funds referred to herein have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 or any state securities laws in the United States and may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 and Investment Company Act of 1940 and in accordance with any applicable U.S. state securities laws.

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